It began with a claim by Stewart Jackson that 37% of EU migrants to the UK have never worked, which Jonathan Portes quickly showed to be wrong. This was followed by some bluster and stonewalling from Jackson, which I’ve omitted for length, until the next morning he changed his claim to saying 37% of EU migrant job seekers, a number only a fraction of his original claim.
Not that he admitted to any error in this. Rather he made a further hash of it, conflating people looking for work with people claiming benefit.
Stewart Jackson MP is a member of the Public Accounts Committee.
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More: Chris Dillow writes that the episode reinforces his doubts about the part expertise has to play in political debate, as “politics is about power, not truth.” But the Public Policy and the Past blog disagrees with such fatalism, asking “where would we be without a sense of scale and scope?”Things @jdportes forgot to mention: UK has highest proportion of EU migrants who have NEVER worked (37%) - France has 16% and Germany 18%
— Stewart Jackson MP (@SJacksonMP) October 21, 2013
. @SJacksonMP Oh dear, Stewart, wrong again.70% of EU migrants are in work now! http://t.co/D6nb2PFvWs So how could 37% have "never worked"?
— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) October 21, 2013
@SJacksonMP @jdportes do those figures include students?
— Chris Paul (@ChrispLOL) October 21, 2013
@ChrispLOL @SJacksonMP Stewart's figures are totally wrong, so who knows? But the 30% currently not working includes students (+pensioners)
— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) October 21, 2013
@jdportes @SJacksonMP As a member of the public accounts committee, mis-reading numbers must be a little embarrassing.
— Brian Lawton (@MrBLawton) October 21, 2013
. @SJacksonMP For the record, %age of EU migrants in UK who've never worked in UK - 12% [30% x 36%, table 3.2 & figure 3.7].
— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) October 21, 2013
@jdportes @SJacksonMP Unless I'm missing something, it's lower than that: 30% x 36% = 10.8%
— Brian Lawton (@MrBLawton) October 22, 2013
@MrBLawton @SJacksonMP indeed -11%.
— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) October 22, 2013
@jdportes Refer you to p30 of the report fig 3.10 of 112k EU migrant job seekers 37% in UK had never worked in their country of residence
— Stewart Jackson MP (@SJacksonMP) October 22, 2013
. @SJacksonMP So why did you refer to the 2 million EU migrants in UK, not the 112K EU origin jobseekers?
— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) October 22, 2013
Last night @SJacksonMP said "37% of (2 million) EU migrants have never worked ". Now it's 37% of (112K) EU jobseekers "never worked in UK".
— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) October 22, 2013
@jdportes Are you saying this is wrong and therefore the report is inaccurate?
— Stewart Jackson MP (@SJacksonMP) October 22, 2013
@SJacksonMP no, we're pointing out you misread report & then misrepresented it (& me). Still waiting for you to correct & withdraw.
— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) October 22, 2013
@jdportes So 37% of 112k EU job seekers estimate (41k) claiming all residence based benefits (inc HB) likely to cost taxpayer c.£400m p a
— Stewart Jackson MP (@SJacksonMP) October 22, 2013
. @SJacksonMP Wrong yet again "Jobseekers" means looking for a job - doesn't mean they're claiming benefits. http://t.co/jfOKOGVKsA
— Jonathan Portes (@jdportes) October 22, 2013
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