Showing posts with label gaza. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gaza. Show all posts

Friday, 11 July 2014

Israel plays Assad and Khamenei’s game in Gaza

This link will serve, a news story from The Globe and Mail yesterday, on how Hamas is armed by Iran with Syrian and Iranian-made rockets, particularly the Syrian-made M-302 Khaibar and Iranian Fajr-5 missiles. It cites Colonel Richard Kemp an analyst with London’s Royal United Services Institute, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:
“Iran is … sending deadly weapons to terrorist organizations – via an elaborate network of secret operations around that world that aim to funnel rockets, missiles and other deadly weapons to be used to harm innocent civilians,” Mr. Netanyahu said, adding: “Hamas will pay a heavy price for firing toward Israeli citizens.”
In other words, Mr. Netanyahu makes clear that Gazans are pawns of Khamenei and Assad, but despite knowing this his retaliation will be limited to the pawns, with all the killing of civilians that comes with carrying out such an operation in Gaza.

This is a repeat of the stubborn stupidity of Israel’s conduct of war in Lebanon in 2006, where it targeted civilian infrastructure and held a fragile Lebanese government responsible for the actions of Hezbollah, rather than attacking Hezbollah’s actual backers, the tyrant rulers of Syria and Iran.

The foolishness of this was highlighted at the time by the strategically smartest American president of the 21st Century (not a big claim) GW Bush:
You see the irony is what they need to do is get Syria, to get Hezbollah to stop doing this shit and it’s all over…
When Israel’s government declares the Iranian and Syrian regimes responsible for arming Hamas, and when it accuses Hamas of deliberately putting civilians in harm’s way, they make it clear that when they then go on to hit only targets in Gaza, and continue to contain Gaza’s population together with a Hamas regime that by the Israel government’s own account is happy to see them bleed, then Israel is playing Assad and Khamenei’s game in Gaza.

Assad and Khamenei are blessed to have an enemy like Israel, an enemy who will draw the world’s outrage while Assad’s helicopters and Khamenei’s militias get on with slaughtering Syrians across the border. And though Israel has repeatedly demonstrated that they have the ability to hit inside Syria, they’ll let Assad’s helicopters and Khamenei’s supply planes carry on flying.

Syria still needs a No-Fly Zone. It would serve the Israelis’ interests too, but they don’t seem to have the wit to see it.

At +972, Nobody should be a number: Names of those killed in Gaza, via Peter Beaumont.

Sunday, 27 January 2013

Twit Archive 1-15 November 2011


Above, John Dog sings Imperfect Strangers.

Below the fold, tweets on Iran, Bahrain, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Gaza, Cuba, Afghanistan, and on comics, children’s books, film, and music.

Friday, 18 January 2013

Twit Archive 13-31 July 2011


Above, issue 56 of De Poezenkrant, a magazine by Piet Schreuders. It’s available to buy here, a bargain!

In its paper pages you’ll find a story also mentioned in a tweet below, Anne Billson’s study of the several stand-in cats appearing in Carol Reed’s The Third Man. The link in the tweet is broken as her Cats on Film blog has since moved, but here it is, Cat of the Day 078, or as it’s titled in the magazine, The Third Cat.

Below the fold, more tweets on films, books, music, comics and cartoons. And Libya, Iran, Gaza, Breivik.

Tuesday, 15 January 2013

Twit Archive 21-31 May 2011


Below the fold, old tweets on Libya, Bahrain, Egypt, Gaza. Also publishing, illustration, music and film.

Above, drawing by Louis Crucius (or Crusius), from the BibliOdyssey blog of book art.

Monday, 14 February 2011

25 Bahman in Iran, 14 Feb in Bahrain

Iran

Live blog at Tehran Bureau and EA WorldView.

Comment from Gene at HP. More from that quarter on selective solidarity.

More from Azarmehr on Egyptian solidarity.

Committee to Protect Journalists on Iran’s imprisonment of journalists.


Bahrain

Today’s Egypt and Beyond live blog at EA WorldView turns to Bahrain.

Glen Carey at Bloomberg, Bahrain Human-Rights Organization Urges King to Free Detainees, and Omar Al-Shehabi at CIF on Bahrain, both via Iraqi American Mojo.

From Foreign Policy magazine last December, Why the Bahrain elections matter, by Kristin Smith Diwan, and from September, Bahrain's Shia crackdown, by Steven Sotloff, and The Internet in Bahrain: breaking the monopoly of information, by Fahad Desmukh.

Ali Abdulemam, blogger and Global Voices contributor, imprisoned in Bahrain since 5 September.


Meanwhile . . .

 . . . in Yemen (more), in Algeria (more), in Libya, in Morocco . . . and what now in Gaza? Also, more from Mojo on why democracy in Iraq has been difficult.

Old fellow you’d best step away


From Victorian valentines you haven’t seen, at Uncle Eddie’s Theory Corner.

Wednesday, 2 February 2011

Gangsters

Live coverage of Egypt from BBC News, The New York Times, EA WorldView, The Guardian. Al Jazeera’s live stream.

Danger Room: Horses, Camels, Rocks, Molotovs: Egypt’s Thug Tech.

CNN reports attacks on ambulances, intimidation of doctors, Cairo hospital: Ambulances rolling nonstop; menacing crowd outside.

Committee to Protect Journalists: Journalists under physical assault in Egypt.

It’s not orderly, it’s not stability, it’s not working. ABC News on frustration in the White House: President Obama ‘Very Concerned’ About Mubarak Delaying Transfer Of Power.

Jeffrey Goldberg: The Neocons Split with Israel Over Egypt, via HP.

Also at Harry’s Place, Perspectives on the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, which links to a number of arguments, and a news story I’ve been waiting for - Avi Issacharoff writes in Haaretz, Hamas worried upheaval in Arab world will spill into Gaza:
Hamas leaders in the Gaza Strip are concerned about the effects of the upheaval in the Arab world, as Facebook messages call on Gaza residents to demonstrate against Hamas rule on Friday.

Several thousand people have joined the Facebook group calling for a protest against Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip. Another Facebook group is calling for protests against the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. Far fewer people have expressed interest in that page, but Palestinian leaders in the West Bank also recognize that the protests in Tunisia and Egypt could spill over into Palestinian territory.

In what seems to be an effort to hold off possible demonstrations, PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad said the Palestinian Authority will hold municipal elections in the near future, and senior Fatah officials said they are considering general elections as well.

In Gaza City, Hamas police used force earlier this week to disperse a small rally showing solidarity with Egyptian protesters. Police officers dressed in civilian clothing arrested six women and detained some 20 others, according to Human Rights Watch.

The women were taken to a police station, where policewomen insulted them and slapped one of them during an interrogation, according to the report. The protesters were told not to demonstrate again without Hamas police authorization.
More.

ModernityBlog has a round up of blog analysis, opinion, and speculation: Egypt, What Will Happen Next?

Bob from Brockley is on a million link march: Freedom’s Flame.

All Egypt posts here.

Tuesday, 11 January 2011

Mediterranean anti-totalitarian news



Tunisia

AFP: At least 35 killed in Tunisia riots: rights group.
PARIS (AFP) – At least 35 people have been killed in the riots that erupted over the weekend in Tunisia, the president of the International Federation for Human Rights said on Tuesday.
“We have a list of the names of the 35,” Souhayr Belhassen told AFP. “The total figure is higher. It’s somewhere around 50, but that's an estimate.”
More.

Brian Whitaker writes Tunisia: the brink of revolution.

At FP, Marc Lynch writes Arab regimes on edge.

FT: Riots resonate for youth across Arab world.

Issandr El Amrani of The Arabist writing in Al-Masry Al-Youm: Tunisia: A warning sign for Arab regimes.

The Economist: Hotting up.

France 24: Trouble in paradise: Tunisia’s ‘economic miracle’ unmasked.

On TVO’s Search Engine podcast, Jesse Brown talks to Robert Guerra of the Internet Freedom Project about Tunisia’s Totalitarian Tech.

See EA WorldView for more coverage.

Algeria

At FP, Hugh Roberts writes on Algeria’s national ‘protesta’. Further comment on the article from blogger Kal at The Moor Next Door.

Egypt
At The Arabist, Issandr El Amrani writes about US government policy on democracy promotion in Egypt.
By the time Barack Obama took office in 2009, democratic reform in Egypt had already been relegated to secondary importance. As such, the oft-heard claim that the Obama administration made a radical break with democracy promotion in its Egypt policy is patently untrue. Nonetheless, Obama’s priorities in Egypt have disappointed democracy activists.
More.

Gaza
In the LRB, old guard PLO gal Karma Nabulsi pooh-poohs the Gaza Youth Manifesto. Also read Peter Ryley’s short comment on this.

Turkey
Reporters Without Borders: Former editor of Kurdish daily Azadiya Welat sentenced to 138 years in prison, via Terry Glavin’s anti-totalitarian round-up.

Greece
From November, the BBC Word Service history programme Witness remembers the part played by radio in the 1973 Greek student protest.

Monday, 12 July 2010

REWIND << ERASE

Last month’s post on Prof. Judith Butler concerned her view of feminism as only valid when tied to a narrowly anti-Western form of anti-imperialism. For her, feminists in places like Afghanistan must be hobbled like an entry for a three-legged race, while running against a murderous opposition burdened with no such restrictions.

Amongst other utterances, the post pointed to her statement on Hamas and Hezbollah in 2006. From the Radical Archives blog, a long extract with video:
This is Judith Butler’s reply to a bundle of four questions asked in Q&A during a 2006 teach-in at UC Berkeley about the war between Israel and Hezbollah. Audience members asked:

1. Since Israel is an imperialist, colonial project, should resistance be based on social movements or the nation-state?

2. What is the power of the Israel Lobby and is questioning it antisemitic?

3. Since the Left hesitates to support Hamas and Hezbollah “just” because of their use of violence, does this hurt Palestinian solidarity?

4. Do Hamas and Hezbollah actually threaten Israel’s existence, as portrayed in some media?


Judith Butler:

“Ok, well, I would just briefly say: I think its imperative to figure out what the mechanisms are of the various lobbies in the US – the American Jewish Congress, the American Jewish Committee, the Anti-Defamation League – how they work to help to formulate US foreign policy toward Israel. I think there’s no question we need an honest, rigorous appraisal. I think there are some versions of it that strike me as perhaps a little too easily subscribing to conspiracy theories, and I think that there can be an antisemitic version, and there can be a really useful, critical version as well. I have no doubt it’s a very powerful lobby – I actually think of it as multifaceted – and I think we need more careful, rigorous analyses of it.

So you know the short answer is: one neither has to dispute the existence of such a lobby, or its power, to prove that one is not antisemitic; but neither does one have to accept every version of that, given that some versions are, I think, problematically bound up with conspiracy theories.

Similarly, I think: Yes, understanding Hamas, Hezbollah as social movements that are progressive, that are on the Left, that are part of a global Left, is extremely important. That does not stop us from being critical of certain dimensions of both movements. It doesn’t stop those of us who are interested in non-violent politics from raising the question of whether there are other options besides violence. So again, a critical, important engagement. I mean, I certainly think it should be entered into the conversation on the Left. I similarly think boycotts and divestment procedures are, again, an essential component of any resistance movement.”

[[ audience claps]]

= = =

Thanks to Camila Bassi for pointing out this video in her essay “The Anti-Imperialism of Fools’: A Cautionary Story on the Revolutionary Socialist Vanguard of England’s Post-9/11 Anti-War Movement”

NOTE: The questions start at 10:30 and Butler starts her answer at 14:55.


Today I read (via here and here) that Prof. Butler is claiming that she has been misrepresented. The following is from an interview this month with AVIVA-Berlin:
AVIVA-Berlin: How do you feel about the accusation that you have perhaps taken an anti-Semitic position concerning your statement about the Hamas and the Hezbollah as progressive social movements? Does that bother you more as a philosopher or on a personal level?

Judith Butler: Unfortunately, that clip was cut short and did not include all of my response. What I actually said was that although groups like Hamas and Hezbollah should be described as left movements, that like all left movements, one has to choose which ones one supports and which ones one refuses. They are "left" in the sense that they oppose colonialism and imperialism, but their tactics are not ones that I would ever condone. I have never supported either group, and my very public affiliation with a politics of non-violence would make it impossible for me to support them. The editing of my response was obviously an effort to distort my view, and I am very sorry that the distortion has been able to circulate as it has. Thank you for giving me the chance to clarify what I actually said and what I have always thought.

It is very strange, but I find it impossible to find any evidence in that clip of the Professor’s comments being edited in any way. What do you think?
_

Added: The comments of the Professor’s that kicked off my first post were made when she refused a prize at the 2010 Christopher Street Day Parade in Berlin, declaring that the organisers were complicit in racism. It seems difficult to find specifics on what is at the centre of this allegation. In her statement she said that “Some of the organizers explicitly made racist statements or did not dissociate themselves from them,” but I haven’t seen any examples given of these racist statements. In a comment at Bully Bloggers she goes into a little more detail, but without giving sources or references:
I was asked by the organizers to supply evidence for my charge of racism, so I showed them several sites where their members and sponsors referred to the archaic and pre-modern character of “arab cultures” as a way of explaining putatively high rates of attacks on gay people on the part of arab youth. Groups like Maneo have actively sought to institute racial profiling as a police practice. They see this as part of “self-defense” rather than as explicit racism. Their framework assumes that there are queers and there are migrants, which means that they efface migrant queers in their very way of thinking. I suggested in one interview that maybe they should do some studies on the rise of right-wing racism in Germany, its links with homophobia, or indeed concentrate on homophobia in the Catholic Church.
Without knowing what sites and comments she’s talking about, it’s hard to know what to make of it all, other than to note that she isn’t as worried about anti-Catholic sectarianism as she is about racism and anti-Muslim bigotry.

I haven’t yet found any other references online to Maneo advocating racial profiling, so don’t know the truth of it. Maneo did contribute comments to this 2008 Spiegel Online story on migration and homophobia in Germany, and without sounding to my ears like a gang of racist nationalists. I’d be interested in hearing other views, particularly with sources.

Related, via Bob: Gay Imperialism, and Israeli Pinkwashing., and in Gay City News, Berlin based journalist Benjamin Weinthal writes What Drives Gays and Lesbians to Bash Israel?
_

Added: Meanwhile in Afghanistan . . .

Friday, 25 June 2010

Anti-imperialism über alles

Via Harry’s Place, read philosophy prof Judith Butler on how war-waging types are instrumentalising people, specifically gay, bisexual, lesbian, trans and queer people. (My spell-checker doesn’t dig that coinage, let’s try it in American: instrumentalizing? Nope. Guess this machine is out of date.)

The context for this was the 2010 Christopher Street Day Parade in Berlin, which Judith Butler felt was not cool, at least not as cool as the alt. edition, Transgenialer CSD. On that I have no opinion. But on the instrumentalificationising business? Ah yes. First, here’s the relevant paragraph from her Berlin speech, refusing a prize on Christopher Street Day:
We all have noticed that gay, bisexual, lesbian, trans and queer people can be instrumentalized by those who want to wage wars, i.e. cultural wars against migrants by means of forced islamophobia and military wars against Iraq and Afghanistan. In these times and by these means, we are recruited for nationalism and militarism. Currently, many European governments claim that our gay, lesbian, queer rights must be protected and we are made to believe that the new hatred of immigrants is necessary to protect us. Therefore we must say no to such a deal.
And from last year, here’s Judith Butler talking to Nina Power:
NP: To the horror of many on the left, feminism and (to a lesser extent) gay rights were invoked as democratic values in the case for war in Afghanistan and Iraq (‘freeing’ women from the burka, for example). How do you understand the contemporary relationship between feminism (and gay rights) and war?

JB: There are at least two problems here. The one has to do with the sudden instrumentalization of “gay rights” or “women’s rights” to fight the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, a move that suggests that we are actually fighting a culture, a religion, or an entire social structure rather than a particular state or its government. The notions of emancipation instrumentalized for such purposes are clearly imperialist, and assume that liberation means adopting certain kinds of cultural norms as the most valuable. But this argument is really treacherous in my view, since it overrides the actual political movements already underway in such countries that are working out specific political vocabularies and claims for rethinking gender, sexuality, and domination.

The second problem is that lesbian/gay rights, and the rights of sexual minorities, need to join with feminist, anti-racist, and anti-war movements and are, in many instances, already joined together. There is no bona fide feminism, for instance, that is not also anti-racist. Similarly, there is no struggle for the rights of sexual minorities that is worthy of the name that does not affirm the cultural diversity of sexual minorities. Further, it is important to understand “minoritization” strategies as effecting both sexual and religious minorities - another reason why complex alliances are crucial.
To try and understand what is meant here, I’m going to start with the sentence “There is no bona fide feminism, for instance, that is not also anti-racist.” This seems clear enough. Feminism, the struggle for women’s rights, must be a struggle for universal women’s rights unlimited by race. But this is presented as a “for instance” in relation to the preceding sentence, declaring “lesbian/gay rights, and the rights of sexual minorities, need to join with feminist, anti-racist, and anti-war movements.” The implication then would seem to be that those not joined with anti-war movements are not bona fide lesbian/gay rights campaigners, are not bona fide feminists, not bona fide anti-racists.

So Judith Butler’s answer to the question on the contemporary relationship between feminism and gay rights and war is that there are no real feminists who are not part of the anti-war movement.

And continuing to work backwards to the previous paragraph, where arguments on women’s rights are deployed in relation to the war in Afghanistan, then “the notions of emancipation instrumentalized for such purposes are clearly imperialist, and assume that liberation means adopting certain kinds of cultural norms as the most valuable.” Let’s be clear what notions these are: the struggle for women’s education, for the right to vote, the struggle to stop forced marriages of young girls, in short the struggle for equal political and economic rights. These notions, because they have been deployed in support of the war against the Taliban, they are now regarded by Judith Butler as imperialist. They are no longer bona fide feminist notions, because they are not anti-war.

Forget that the Taliban are a deadly repressive misogynist organisation created, nay instrumentalised, by little imperialists in Pakistan’s military, because the only imperialism Judith Butler recognises is Western Imperialism: worse than the lash, worse than acid in the face, worse than public execution in the football stadium.

In her Berlin speech, Judith Butler says, “In these times and by these means, we are recruited for nationalism and militarism.” Hum. On nationalism and militarism then . . .

First on nationalism:

In his essay, Notes on Nationalism, George Orwell presented a view of nationalism as something other than just allegiance to one’s country of birth or residence. He defined it as, “the habit of identifying oneself with a single nation or other unit, placing it beyond good and evil and recognising no other duty than that of advancing its interests.” He pointed out that “nationalist feeling can be purely negative. There are, for example, Trotskyists who have become simply enemies of the USSR without developing a corresponding loyalty to any other unit.” And further, “transferred nationalism has been a common phenomenon among literary intellectuals. With Lafcadio Hearne the transference was to Japan, with Carlyle and many others of his time to Germany, and in our own age it is usually to Russia.”

I think all this clearly applies to contemporary anti-imperialism. It is a Western phenomenon that is overwhelmingly anti-Western, with little or no interest in any imperialism that can’t be blamed on the US, with no coherent positive alternative to promote, and to its adherents all other arguments are secondary. Judith Butler adheres to this negative transferred nationalism of anti-Western anti-imperialism.

And now on militarism:

Here, via the Radical Archives, is Judith Butler on Hamas and Hezbollah:
Similarly, I think: Yes, understanding Hamas, Hezbollah as social movements that are progressive, that are on the Left, that are part of a global Left, is extremely important. That does not stop us from being critical of certain dimensions of both movements. It doesn’t stop those of us who are interested in non-violent politics from raising the question of whether there are other options besides violence. So again, a critical, important engagement. I mean, I certainly think it should be entered into the conversation on the Left.

So, Hamas and Hezbollah, two military organisations backed by a murderous and extremely misogynist authoritarian theocratic state; these she can be just a little bit critical of while embracing them as part of a global left. But a military that helps the Afghan government in a struggle against murderous misogynist thugs operating across their southern border, a struggle that is backed by the overwhelming majority of the population of Afghanistan; for such a military the only word she has is ‘imperialist’.
_

To learn about some of the feminists of Afghanistan that Judith Butler regards as not bona fide, read Terry Glavin’s articles on the women of Parwan, Shamsia Sharifi, Yasameen and Raziea, Afghan Soccer Heroes, and Sitara Achakzai.
_

Earlier on this blog: interviews with helpless Afghan women instrumentalised by Western Imperialism here.

More on how Western anti-war feminists can’t deal honestly with Afghanistan here.

More on post-modern anti-imperialists unable to think straight here and here and here and here.

An old favourite: an anti-imperialist on fluffy issues in Afghanistan.


UPDATE: The prof says she didn’t say what she said. As they say in our house, “Ha ha, very funny, my name’s Bugs Bunny.”

Wednesday, 9 June 2010

Numbers

First, a poll from April by the Jerusalem Media & Communication Centre, a Palestinian NGO. On voting intentions should there be an election, it gave a figure of 16% support for Hamas in Gaza compared with 42.7% for Fatah. 40.9% of respondents in Gaza said the West Bank government was doing a better job than the Gaza government, compared with 26% saying the reverse.

And yet quite a number of people seem under the impression that Hamas is the more popular party with the Palestinian population, at least judging by commenters at the New Statesman. (Via Bob.)

Everyone knows that the Gaza flotilla killings were a massive defeat for Israel in the battle for public opinion, but how big a defeat? Michael J Totten links to a poll:
Forty-nine percent (49%) of U.S. voters believe pro-Palestinian activists on the Gaza-bound aid ships raided by Israeli forces are to blame for the deaths that resulted in the high-profile incident.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 19% of voters think the Israelis are to blame. Thirty-two percent (32%) more are not sure.
More here. It would be interesting to see polls from other countries.

Michael Totten also links to another poll story from a year ago:
A survey conducted by the Boston Review in its May/June issue shows that nearly 25% of American non-Jews blame “the Jews” a moderate amount or more for the financial crisis.
Original story here.

Mick Hartley brings news of further criticism of the survey published by The Lancet in 2006 claiming a death toll of 600,000 in the Iraq War. The survey has now been questioned by Professor Michael Spagat of the Department of Economics at Royal Holloway, University of London:
Professor Spagat's research analyses the high-profile Burnham et al (2006) survey that estimated 601,000 violent deaths in the Iraq war and says it is unreliable, invalid and unethical and resulted in an exaggeration of the death toll.
According to the study all credible evidence suggests that a large number of people have been killed in the Iraq war. However, injecting inflated and unsupportable numbers into this discussion undermines our understanding of the conflict and could incite further violence”, says Professor Spagat.
More here. Earlier posts on the Lancet survey here and here.

Finally, at Ghosts of Alexander, AfPak Conference: Opinion Polls Make You Dumb. (Oopsy.)

Saturday, 5 June 2010

Gaza on the back of an envelope

Caution be damned, here we go:

The argument for the blockade of Gaza is that if it is lifted, Hamas will be free to re-arm, and Iran will increase its influence in the area.

The arguments against the blockade are that it causes hardship to the population, prevents development of the legitimate economy, encourages the illegitimate smuggler economy, and fails to prevent Hamas re-arming.

I’d make one more argument against the blockade: it reinforces the primacy of the Israel-Palestine conflict in the lives of Gaza residents. This might seem a bit too obvious, but I read little or no comment on the possibility of changing Gaza’s relationship with the world to something broader than the dysfunctional Israel-Palestine binary relationship.

I think long term peace depends not just on improving the binary relationship, but on diminishing its importance relative to other relationships between Gaza residents and the wider world.

My back of an envelope solution is to put Gaza’s port under the control of a UN Port Authority mandated by the UN Security Council, with control over customs, security and economic development in the port area.

I fully trust this is a solution that will please no-one. The history of UN Oil For Food in Iraq comes to mind, as does UN failure in the Bosnian war. A UN regime at the port would no doubt be unable to stop smuggling and corruption, and would probably offer new possibilities in this area. It would be unable to stop Hamas re-arming. But these downsides are likely in any case.

Here are a couple more things a UN Port Authority would not do. It would not exert any control over Palestinian politics in Gaza outside of the port area. It would not prevent Israel or Hamas from waging war. Again, no change there.

So what could change? A UN Port Authority should have as part of its mandate the greatest possible development of economic and cultural connectivity between Gaza and the wider world. It should be an active investor in developing the port as an international shipping centre, not just a deposit point for aid. It should allow and encourage a legitimate economy to develop. It should facilitate the free flow of information between Gaza and the wider world. It should facilitate the free passage of people from and to Gaza.

A UN Port Authority could open the door for Gaza to step outside of the Israel-Palestine binary relationship.

Monday, 31 May 2010

Military and political failure

Links and video from Martin (version with sound here), comment and discussion at Abu Muqawama, London street blogging from Francis.

Added: Flotillas and the Wars of Public Opinion by George Friedman at STRATFOR. An excerpt:
Public opinion matters where issues are not of fundamental interest to a nation. Israel is not a fundamental interest to other nations. The ability to generate public antipathy to Israel can therefore reshape Israeli relations with countries critical to Israel. For example, a redefinition of U.S.-Israeli relations will have much less effect on the United States than on Israel. The Obama administration, already irritated by the Israelis, might now see a shift in U.S. public opinion that will open the way to a new U.S.-Israeli relationship disadvantageous to Israel.

The Israelis will argue that this is all unfair, as they were provoked [...] they seem to think that the issue is whose logic is correct. But the issue actually is, whose logic will be heard? As with a tank battle or an airstrike, this sort of warfare has nothing to do with fairness. It has to do with controlling public perception and using that public perception to shape foreign policy around the world. In this case, the issue will be whether the deaths were necessary. The Israeli argument of provocation will have limited traction.
Israel’s Gaza policy since the 2005 pullout has been a combination of incomplete control and inconclusive war, while having to bear complete responsibility for the consequences. This doesn’t seem sustainable. The alternatives are difficult in both the direction of more control at great cost and in the direction of less control while maintaining active deterrence at unknown cost. I favour the latter as more within the realm of the possible, but I’m uncertain.

Added 3rd June:

This is not the way we put an end to war, writes Terry Glavin.

Flesh is Grass on the Gaza flotilla.

Two more from Abu Muqawama: The Limits of Military Operations, and Two Thoughts on Israel.

A series of posts at the maritime strategy blog Information Dissemination: Israeli Actions Are Stupid But Legal, More Thoughts on the Gaza Flotilla, InfoWar Observations, a short one, Priorities, on the value of Israeli manufactured drones to the Turkish military, and a longer one, On Bloggers and Battleships, looking at possible lessons for the US Navy.

Added 4th June:

Iranian blogger Pedestrian condemns the Israeli action, but detects double standards amongst some of Israel's critics in the Western Left:
As usual, pro-peace activists are busy organizing events and writing blog posts and I thank them for that. But I wonder where a lot of them were when Ahmadinejad was murdering his own citizens?

….. Oh! I remember now! They were busy writing articles supporting him.

I guess murder is only murder if Israel does it.

What angers me about their response to Iran is not that it matters (in the end, the situation in Iran will not change for better or worse no matter what they do). But that they are responsible for the very double standards they accuse the West of and which we Iranians and Arabs are all too well accustomed to.

All the main green leaders have condemned the murders on the flotilla. And I’m glad they did. They are reaffirming one of the most admirable positions of the green movement:

Che ghazeh, Che Iran, Margh Bar Zaleman.
Whether in Gaza or in Iran, down with all tyrants.
I don’t agree with everything else in her post, but then that’s what the comments thread is for.

Added 5th June:

Bigots on the left, bigots on the right, Bob from Brockley surveys a depressing prospect.

In The New York Times, a reconstruction of events including an account by protester Dr Mahmut Coskun. The close of the article:
In Istanbul, the activists had come home and Dr. Coskun was remembering the raid. He was bitter that commandos had not let him help a bleeding man, instead delivering occasional kicks, he said, and forcing the passengers to lie face down on the deck, handcuffed, for hours.

He was also angry at the young men who fought the commandos. He rebuked one of them for bragging about having beaten an Israeli.

“I told him, just because you wanted to flex your muscles and drag three soldiers down, nine people ended up dead.”

But most of all he was stunned that the Israelis had used their guns on the activists.

“We expected them to come on board the ship, and to take us hostage, but we never thought they would use live bullets to do it,” he said.

Friday, 18 September 2009

Iran, Israel, Palestine


(image from Raye Man Kojast)

The Guardian News Blog is covering today’s Green Movement protests during Quds Day in Iran.
The Guardian's former Iran correspondent Robert Tait is monitoring events from Istanbul. He writes: Ahmadinejad was giving a live interview on IRIB's Channel Two from the scene of Quds Day. As he spoke, viewers could clealy the chants of "Ahmadi, Ahmadi, resign, resign" - this all over live TV. Apparently Ahmadinejad was aware of the chants and their effect on the interview. He is said to have become flustered and quickly wrapped up the interview.
Much more, including snippets of Ahmadinejad’s speech today blaming the formation of Israel on the British (huh?) and again denying the Holocaust.
From Raye Man Kojast, Moussavi’s recommended slogan for Quds Day demonstrations:
Put down your gun For I am weary from seeing this bloodshed Whether in Lebanon or Gaza Whether in Quds or Iran
Lots more today from Raye Man Kojast.
From Pedestrian, chants heard today in Iran:
argh bar Roosiyeh - Death to Russia Roosiyeh Haya Kon, Keshvaremoon ro raha kon - Russia, leave our country alone! Na Ghazeh, na Lobnan, janam fadayeh Iran - My life belongs to neither Gaza nor Lebanon - but Iran Che Ghazeh, che Iran, margh bar zaleman - Whether in Gaza or in Iran, death to tyrants
More. Also from Pedestrian, Today, and What We Are After, while her friend Naj has a laugh at the official version, and shows the early editions of tomorrow’s front pages.
From Tehran Bureau, Co-opting Quds Day, and Quds Day Updates.
My Dear People of Iran, For the past thirty years, the Iranian regime has used the cause of the Palestinian people as a way to distract from its own oppressive rule. I thank the people of Iran for showing their support over the years with the people of Palestine, especially because on this day of Qods, the people of Iran suffer under the kind of unelected oppression that is comparable in some ways to that suffered by Palestinians. As a Palestinian, life-long fighter for the freedom and independence of Palestine and a leader of the first Palestinian intifada, I strongly condemn the Iranian regime’s violations of human rights and repeated use of violence against the nonviolent Iranian protesters, activists and prisoners. I stand in complete solidarity with and support for the Iranian people and am confident that with their resilience, they will achieve a free and democratic Iran to raise their children in and have a good life. In unity, Mubarak Awad
Azarmehr also links to videos of today’s events, here, here, here, and here.
The Times has a report today on the degree of violence unleashed by the regime in response to the post-election protests:
The Times has been given access to 500 pages of documents - a small fraction of the total - that include handwritten testimony by victims, medical reports and interviews. They suggest that security forces have engaged in systematic killing and torture to try to break the opposition.
[...] The documents suggest that at least 200 demonstrators were killed in Tehran, with 56 others still unaccounted for, and that 173 were killed in other cities. These are several times higher than the official figures. Just over half of the 200 were killed on the streets. They were beaten around the head or shot in the head or chest as part of an apparent shoot-to-kill policy - there are no reports of demonstrators being shot in the legs.
Update: for morning after coverage in english language mainstream press, see the SWJ Roundup for 19 September, with 68 matches for the word ‘Iran’.
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Some interesting background on the ongoing issue of Iran’s nuclear programme, and the question of whether Israel might attempt military action to impede it:
Joshua Pollack at Arms Control Wonk puts together a brief history of military missions to prevent nuclear weapons development, beginning with World War II actions in Telemark, Norway, and including Iranian and Israeli air attacks on Saddam Hussein’s Osirak reactor in 1980 and 1981, and Iraqi attacks on partially complete Iranian nuclear power plants at Bushehr in 1984, ’85, ’86 and ’87.
A commenter on that post gives a link to a detailed story from Air Enthusiast (issue 110, March/April 2004) which maintains there was a high degree of co-operation between Iran and Israel in their attacks on Osirak.

Saturday, 4 July 2009

Not Iran

It’s hard to keep your eyes pointing in all directions at once . . .
Iraq, and Thoughts on Intervention, by Roland Dodds. Added: Ibn Muqawama on Joe Biden, Iraq envoy.
Sietske in Beirut writes on conversations she has. Not many dead, according to the papers.
Via Mick Hartley, Riots in China. Mick has also paid particular attention to the Uighurs being released from Guantanamo, fleshing out their tale with information on ongoing repression of Uighurs by the Chinese authorities in Xinjiang. Since his last round up on the story, The New York Times has published a report on the Uighurs settled in Bermuda.  
Georgia’s Hard Slog to Democracy by Michael Cecire, at Michael Totten’s blog. Related at the NY times, Russia’s Neighbors Resist Wooing and Bullying.
Also from Michael Totten, A Conversation with Robert D Kaplan. This does include discussion of Iran, along with China’s involvement in Sri Lanka, Russia and its neighbours, Afghanistan and Pakistan. However I’d like to highlight an exchange at the end regarding Israel’s failure in counterinsurgency, material relevant to the essay topic set in an earlier post here.
Kaplan: You know what’s interesting? The Israelis. They’ve been great at defeating structured Arab armies, but they haven’t figured out how to deal with a few thousand insurgents in South Lebanon or in Gaza. What did their wars in 2006 and 2009 in Lebanon and Gaza get them? MJT: It got them fewer rockets for a while, but it’s temporary. Kaplan: Yeah. MJT: I don’t know what they should do. They can’t put a David Petraeus in Gaza or Lebanon. It won’t work. Kaplan: No. MJT: And they can’t fight a counterinsurgency from the air because that’s just absurd. Kaplan: Yeah. They haven’t been able to solve this problem at all. MJT: I’m glad it isn’t up to me what Israel should do. There aren’t any good options. Maybe they should hold Syria accountable. Syria is at least a state with a return address and national interests. I don’t think the Syrian government is particularly ideological. It isn’t like the Iranian government. Syria isn’t an ideology, it’s a state. Kaplan: It wants to survive. MJT: Maybe the Israelis should lean on Assad. They can’t lean on Hamas or Hezbollah. They can’t lean on Beirut because Beirut is too weak to do much. Kaplan: Yeah. I mean, the idea of bombing highway overpasses near Beirut to punish Lebanon for Hezbollah is ridiculous.
Kaplan and Totten point to Israel’s failure to develop of a true counterinsurgency campaign, but positive suggestions are still lacking. Tackling the Syrian regime may be relevant, but does not address the absence of a population-centric strategy. Any takers? 
Update: Vigilant as I try to be, one direction I didn’t think to look was down.

Tuesday, 23 June 2009

A talk by David Kilcullen


Part of the Authors@Google series, this is an hour long, so too much to summarise, but to encourage you to listen here’s some of what he covers:

He gives a clear explanation of the main theme of his book, The Accidental Guerilla, on how the wrong war-fighting strategies make insurgencies worse. He talks about recent American and British mistakes in counter-insurgency, at one point paying particular attention to the British experience in Basra. He praises the Danish military in Afghanistan, which is nice to hear. He also talks of how aid projects need to be informed by counter-insurgency thinking in order to be effective. And he talks about Pakistan, and the insurgency there that scares him much more than Iraq or Afghanistan.

Now your essay topic for this week: what would a proper counter-insurgency approach to Gaza look like? Hint: containing the population together with the enemy, thus allowing the enemy to consolidate its control of the population, that is not it.

Via Abu Muqawama. Also at Abu Muqawama, Sleepwalking into Helmand, on recent British experience in Afghanistan.

Thursday, 18 June 2009

In fear of the people - 5




Mohsen Makhmalbaf and Marjane Satrapi speaking on Wednesday at the European Parliament in Brussels on behalf of the Moussavi campaign. More details at The New York Times.
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In the previous post I noted that The Guardian was the only UK national paper to lead on Iran yesterday. The paper’s news blog has also been excellent at providing rolling coverage. See here for today’s updates.

However, as Norm points out, the paper’s leading Stalin apologist Seumas Milne has proved as reliably wrong as ever. Like Galloway, it seems Milne never met an ‘anti-imperialist’ he didn’t like, no matter how murderous. Milne was The Guardian’s comment editor from 2001 to ’07 and is currently an associate editor. A paper that pays Milne’s salary is a paper I would be embarrassed to spend money on.
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More from today:
From ModernityBlog, Not just rich kids in Iran.
Today’s updates from The New York Times.
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On the broader implications of events in Iran:

The Poor Mouth points to an article from AP on reaction in the Arab world.

Andrew Sullivan on making the Russian connection, follow up here, and here.

Talking of Russia and Caspian Sea oil and gas, if relations between Iran and the West change considerably, it would make the Russian threat to the Caucasus fuel route via Georgia much less critical.

Michael Totten on the view from Beirut.

A lot of focus has been put on what these events might mean for Israel regarding the Iranian regime’s support for Hamas and Hizbollah, its threats regarding Israel’s existence, its promotion of Holocaust denial, and its nuclear weapons programme. However another aspect to consider is the lesson that it is not Iran’s population that is the problem, in fact they are showing themselves to be the solution. There might be something to learn here regarding how security is to be achieved for Israel closer to home.

Sunday, 19 April 2009

Holiday postcards, unopened mail . . .

A Journey Round My Skull writes ‘wish you were here’ with photochromosomes.
While I was away, Terry Glavin read George Galloway’s mail, a story also covered at Harry’s Place.
Also from Terry Glavin, the killings of Sitara Achakzai and Karine Blais, remembering Safia Amajan and Malalai Kakar.
But as for this easter singsong, I prefer his fellow Soak’s footnote.
When Bob from Brockley came home from a few days away there wasn’t just unopened mail in the hallway, the neighbors had moved in as well. Also worth some time, his earlier post on protesting and policing.
Noga links to a Z-word post on Jeremy Bowen, the BBC, and bias on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, of which more from Harry’s place in one, two, and three posts, and some dissent from Oliver Kamm.
I’ve read the talk with Thomas Ricks but am still working my way back through Michael J Totten’s posts from the last week.
And Flesh has been typing furiously, but I must sleep sometime!
As for Abu Muqawama, I was already struggling to keep up before the holiday - what hope now?
Perhaps I’d better let the rest of the world carry on spinning without me awhile, and stay focused on more personal concerns. Starting with Uncle Eddie’s advice on how cartoonists should dress.

Wednesday, 1 April 2009

Quakers for War


John Rees speaking at the Stop The War Coalition meeting on Monday of this week, at Friends Meeting House, London:
We do not require that people who join our demonstrations or are supporters of the Stop The War Coalition are supporters of the resistance in the Middle East, and nobody I’ve ever talked to in the Middle East in the resistance has ever thought this was a good idea for the very simple reason that if you want a hundred thousand, or a hundred and fifty thousand people on the streets of Britain, what you want is everybody who for whatever reason is opposed to the war. If they’re Quakers or pacifists like the people who  run this hall, you want them on that demonstration. If there are people who have very severe criticisms and would not support the resistance, you want them on that demonstration and that’s been our policy from the beginning.

But it has also been our policy that the resistance is a legitimate part of the movement. They are part of the movement in the Middle East, they are a central part of the movement in the Middle East and it’s not surprising really that if you’re under military occupation that one of the forms of resistance is a military resistance.
And he went on to compare the ‘resistance’ in the Middle East to the French Resistance in World War Two.

Leave aside for a moment that the French Resistance did not deliberately target random civilians, leave aside if you can that the French Resistance fought to restore democracy rather than overthrow it, leave aside that the French Resistance fought a genocidal dictatorship, rather than supporting one, leave these small details for a moment, and focus on this single point:

The policy of the Stop The War Coalition is that a military resistance is a legitimate part of the movement, that these military forces AT WAR are a central part of the movement. This is NOT a peace movement.

From the Quaker Peace Testimony of 1661:
All bloody principles and practices, we, as to our own particulars, do utterly deny, with all outward wars and strife and fightings with outward weapons, for any end or under any pretence whatsoever. And this is our testimony to the whole world.
Full text here.

In supporting the Stop The War Coalition, the Quakers of Friends House have broken with the ideals of their founder George Fox.

Update: some debate at the quaker.org.uk forum.

Also, at Bartholomew’s Notes: Friends House and Islamic Extremists.

Saturday, 7 February 2009

Iraq parallax

As the vantage point changes, opinion changes on Iraq, at least in some places, to some degree. The election has been well-covered on lots of other blogs, but one reaction I found particularly curious was this from Andrew Sullivan. First, some sense: having acknowledged the “relatively peaceful democratic elections” as cause for celebration, he goes on to describe much of the  American policy debates as “narcissistic”, and writes “it is silly to get too exercized about a withdrawal in 16 months or 18 months or two years.” But then he goes on to give the flimsiest argument against any deal beyond the SOFA involving permanent US military basing in Iraq:
What is not silly is a clear determination to leave - and by leave, I mean leave - before the end of Obama’s first term. If the Iraqi government wants military assistance and support, fine. But the notion that Iraq should become a permanent outpost of the US military is one we should reject. Iraq has destroyed every foreign power trying to occupy, control or sit on it. And the US is not, despite neocon dreams, a colonial power in the classic sense.
 I have no opinion on whether or not there should be permanent US bases in Iraq in future, because unlike Mr Sullivan I don’t fancy myself as a clairvoyant. The issue would depend on the future views of both the sovereign government of Iraq and the US government as to their strategic needs. But the really silly part is drawing an equivalence between permanent basing and trying to “occupy, control, or sit” on Iraq. Is this what the US is doing in Britain, Japan, Germany &c?

The world is turning, and Mr Sullivan is running to keep up. I hear the guy used to be good, but I came in late, so I wouldn’t know. More recent Sullivan silliness here (via Roland).
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Following up my earlier Signals and Noise posts (one and two) on the upcoming troop withdrawals, here’s a NY Times piece on the issue from a week ago that focuses on the political as well as military implications for Obama.

I would have thought the political calculation should be simple to work out: If Obama pulls out troops in line with the 16 month campaign promise but against the best advice of military advisers and it goes wrong, he gets blamed. If he pulls out in line with the longer SOFA timetable then he’s following a treaty commitment entered into by the previous administration and is not open to blame to the same degree if it goes wrong. Either way he withdraws well before his re-election campaign, so where is the political benefit in risking withdrawing faster than the SOFA timetable?
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Turning to a related thread in recent posts, on whether there is something to be gained from comparing the occupation of Iraq with Israel’s longer running occupation of the West Bank and Gaza (one and two), The Contentious Centrist recently linked to an interview with Benny Morris talking about the recent fighting in Gaza, which was strong on many points, but to me seemed to fall short on others. Particularly he stated his belief that the introduction of democracy in Arab societies was doomed (29:20), predicting failure in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the Palestinian territories. I hope the recent evidence to the contrary from Iraq may yet broaden the view of what is possible, not just for Iraqis but also for Palestinians, Egyptians, Jordanians, Syrians . . .

Also on making comparisons, a post on Michael J Totten’s blog, A Minority Report from the West Bank and Gaza, was followed by many comments, amongst which an attempt to find lessons in recent Iraqi experience applicable to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was met with some skepticism. But the substance of the actual post once more underlined the necessity of focusing on the needs of populations, not just on political leaders, something re-learned in Iraq and overdue greater application in Israel’s approach to the Palestinians. It’s a lesson that was understood long ago by Hamas, however cynically they applied it.
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Finally, via Harry’s Place, another indication of shifting perspectives, the American Association for Public Opinion Research criticises Dr. Gilbert Burnham, author of the extraordinary estimate of Iraqi war casualties published in The Lancet medical journal in 2006. From the AAPOR press release:
AAPOR found that Burnham, a faculty member at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, repeatedly refused to make public essential facts about his research on civilian deaths in Iraq. In particular, the AAPOR inquiry focused on Burnham’s publication of results from a survey reported in the October 2006 issue of the journal Lancet. When asked to provide several basic facts about this research, Burnham refused.

AAPOR holds that researchers must disclose, or make available for public disclosure, the wording of questions and other basic methodological details when survey findings are made public. This disclosure is important so that claims made on the basis of survey research findings can be independently evaluated. Section III of the AAPOR Code states: "Good professional practice imposes the obligation upon all public opinion researchers to include, in any report of research results, or to make available when that report is released, certain essential information about how the research was conducted."

Mary E. Losch, chair of AAPOR's Standards Committee, noted that AAPOR's investigation of Burnham began in March 2008, after receiving a complaint from a member. According to Losch, "AAPOR formally requested on more than one occasion from Dr. Burnham some basic information about his survey including, for example, the wording of the questions he used, instructions and explanations that were provided to respondents, and a summary of the outcomes for all households selected as potential participants in the survey. Dr. Burnham provided only partial information and explicitly refused to provide complete information about the basic elements of his research.”
The Lancet reportedly had no comment. The Lancet’s editor has been a very public supporter of the UK anti-war movement.

The Lancet has had problems with other stories related to statistics, most notoriously MMR, but also more recently with a story on sexual abuse statistics, debunked on BBC Radio 4’s More or Less last December 5th.